Products related to Uncertainty:
-
Facing Uncertainty
Price: 8.99 £ | Shipping*: 3.99 £ -
Taming Uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure?Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do.Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty.They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others.This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change.They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments.Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Price: 48.00 £ | Shipping*: 0.00 £ -
Embracing Uncertainty
'Susan Jeffers' wisdom feels like a precious gift. Her counsel is profound and meaningful in such challenging times.' MARIANNE WILLIAMSON'Original, courageous and brilliant!' WARREN FARRELL* * * * * * * * * *Nobody knows what will happen in the next moment of our lives.Whatever is in store for us, the only thing we CAN be sure of is that nothing in life is certain. And since we all fear the unknown, life's uncertainty can be a constant source of worry to us. But, as bestselling author Susan Jeffers explains, life doesn't have to be one worry after the next, a steady stream of 'what if's', and a constant attempt to create a secure haven for ourselves.In EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY she emphasises that an unknown future doesn't prevent a rich and abundant life, and shows how by enjoying life's unpredictability we transform ourselves from a position of fear to one filled with excitement and potential. Through invaluable case-studies, exercises and her pragmatic wisdom, Susan convinces us, above all, that life is exhilarating because of, not in spite of the uncertainty.
Price: 10.99 £ | Shipping*: 3.99 £ -
Age of Uncertainty
MUUY BIIEN's latest offering, "Age Of Uncertainty," is a delightful romp through the murky waters of modern indie rock. From the opening track, the band grabs you by the scruff of your neck and drags you headfirst into their world of swirling guitars and pounding drums. The album exudes a sense of urgency and chaos, as if the band members were trying to cram as many ideas as possible into each song. This frenetic energy is both the album's greatest strength and its biggest weakness. While some tracks, like the relentless "Skeletons" and the haunting "Cyanide Breathmint," benefit from this sense of urgency, others can feel a bit cluttered and overwhelming. Lead vocalist Joshua Evans' gritty, almost manic delivery adds to the album's sense of unease. His lyrics are cryptic and often nonsensical, but they somehow feel perfectly at home amidst the cacophony of sound. "Age Of Uncertainty" is not an album for the faint of heart. It demands your attention and refuses to let go until the final notes of the closing track have faded into silence. MUUY BIIEN may not have all the answers, but they certainly know how to keep you on your toes. In the end, "Age Of Uncertainty" is a wild ride that is sure to leave you both exhausted and exhilarated. So buckle up and enjoy the chaos.
Price: 18.74 £ | Shipping*: 0.00 £
-
What is uncertainty?
Uncertainty refers to a lack of certainty or predictability about a situation or outcome. It is the state of not knowing what will happen in the future or the level of confidence one can have in a particular decision or event. Uncertainty can arise from various factors such as incomplete information, complexity, or randomness, and it can lead to feelings of doubt, anxiety, or hesitation. In many cases, uncertainty can be managed through risk assessment, planning, and flexibility in decision-making.
-
What is extreme uncertainty?
Extreme uncertainty refers to a situation where there is a high level of unpredictability and ambiguity surrounding future outcomes. It is characterized by a lack of clear information or data to make informed decisions, leading to a wide range of potential outcomes. In such circumstances, traditional forecasting methods may not be effective, and decision-making becomes challenging. Extreme uncertainty can result from various factors such as rapid technological advancements, geopolitical instability, or global pandemics.
-
What is uncertainty regarding transsexuality?
Uncertainty regarding transsexuality refers to the lack of understanding or clarity surrounding the experiences and identities of transgender individuals. This uncertainty can manifest in various ways, such as confusion about gender identity, societal misconceptions, and a lack of education about transgender issues. It can also lead to discrimination, stigma, and barriers to accessing appropriate healthcare and support services for transgender individuals. Overall, uncertainty regarding transsexuality highlights the importance of promoting awareness, acceptance, and inclusivity for all gender identities.
-
What causes uncertainty while driving?
Uncertainty while driving can be caused by various factors such as poor weather conditions like heavy rain, fog, or snow, which can reduce visibility and road traction. Additionally, unfamiliar roads or driving in new locations can also lead to uncertainty as drivers may not be aware of the road layout or potential hazards. Other drivers' unpredictable behavior, such as sudden lane changes or running red lights, can also create uncertainty on the road. Lastly, mechanical issues with the vehicle, like strange noises or warning lights, can make drivers unsure about the safety and reliability of their vehicle.
Similar search terms for Uncertainty:
-
Principles of Uncertainty
Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. … the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. … A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCEIt's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USALike the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples.It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Price: 44.99 £ | Shipping*: 0.00 £ -
The Uncertainty Principle
Sixteen-year-old Mia is stranded in the middle of the Caribbean.After a mortifying incident in the school cafeteria, her parents decide there is only one way to deal with her meltdown: move onto a battered sailboat and leave everything behind.Her mum and dad think it’s the best decision they’ve ever made.Mia feels like she’s been kidnapped and imprisoned in paradise with no internet and no destination. Her only hope is to hack together a solar-powered satellite phone so she can call her best friend and fix everything.To do it, she’ll have to build a mobile laboratory on the boat and ignore her neurotic mother, who thinks Mia is falling apart. The problem is, Mia is falling apart. By day, she scours deserted islands, looking for anything she can use to build the phone.At night, she squeezes into a narrow bunk and talks to an imaginary friend.She knows, with absolute certainty, that she needs to abandon her family to save her sanity. And then two teenagers sail into her world, promising friendship, and maybe even romance.Thoughtful, soulful Alby was raised in Australia but now his family calls the sea their home.The only thing missing is his soulmate. Bold, beautiful Nisha is simply vacationing on her dad’s mega yacht when a chance encounter upends her life. Now - with everything hanging in the balance - Mia must decide who she is and what she wants. And with this decision comes the revelation that her past and future are more uncertain than she thought.
Price: 17.99 £ | Shipping*: 3.99 £ -
Investment under Uncertainty
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products?Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries?In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made.In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending.This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information.It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment.The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Price: 55.00 £ | Shipping*: 0.00 £ -
Reasoning about Uncertainty
Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it.In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it.While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty.Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research.New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security.Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.
Price: 62.00 £ | Shipping*: 0.00 £
-
How can one hide uncertainty?
One can hide uncertainty by maintaining a confident demeanor, using vague language to avoid committing to a specific answer, and redirecting the conversation to a different topic. Additionally, one can prepare in advance by researching the topic in question to have some knowledge to fall back on. It is important to remember that it is okay to admit when you are unsure about something rather than trying to hide it.
-
What causes uncertainty about vaccinations?
Uncertainty about vaccinations can be caused by a variety of factors. These may include misinformation or myths about vaccine safety and effectiveness, lack of understanding about how vaccines work, fear of potential side effects, and mistrust in the healthcare system. Additionally, conflicting information from different sources, such as social media or celebrities, can contribute to confusion and doubt about the importance of vaccinations. Overall, a lack of clear and accurate information can lead to uncertainty and hesitancy towards vaccines.
-
What causes uncertainty regarding virginity?
Uncertainty regarding virginity can be caused by various factors, including differing cultural beliefs and definitions of virginity. Additionally, lack of education and understanding about human anatomy and sexual health can contribute to confusion about what constitutes virginity. Social pressures and expectations surrounding virginity can also create uncertainty, as individuals may feel conflicted between personal beliefs and societal norms. Lastly, the subjective nature of virginity, which can be influenced by individual experiences and interpretations, can further contribute to uncertainty surrounding this concept.
-
What causes uncertainty about virginity?
Uncertainty about virginity can be caused by a lack of clear understanding or definition of what it means to be a virgin. Different cultures and individuals may have varying beliefs and interpretations of virginity, leading to confusion and uncertainty. Additionally, the physical signs of virginity can be ambiguous and may not always be reliable indicators, further contributing to uncertainty. Social pressure and stigma surrounding virginity can also create uncertainty, as individuals may feel pressured to conform to certain expectations or norms. Ultimately, the complex and subjective nature of virginity can lead to uncertainty and confusion for many people.
* All prices are inclusive of VAT and, if applicable, plus shipping costs. The offer information is based on the details provided by the respective shop and is updated through automated processes. Real-time updates do not occur, so deviations can occur in individual cases.